Roma vs Viktoria Plzen Prediction: Giallorossi to Triumph at Stadio Olimpico

By SocaPredict Team | October 23, 2025

The UEFA Europa League League Phase heats up as AS Roma face Viktoria Plzen at the iconic Stadio Olimpico in a crucial Matchday 3 clash. With Roma desperate to rebound from a stuttering start and Plzen riding high on an unbeaten European run, this matchup promises intensity and drama. Our expert prediction? Roma to win – here’s why the Giallorossi are poised to claim all three points on home soil.

Roma’s Redemption Mission

Roma’s 2025-26 Europa League campaign has been a mixed bag. After a promising 2-1 victory over OGC Nice in France, Gian Piero Gasperini’s side suffered a gut-wrenching 1-0 home defeat to LOSC Lille, compounded by a historic penalty fiasco – three consecutive spot-kicks saved by Lille’s Berke Ozer. Currently sitting 15th in the League Phase with three points, Roma are one point behind Plzen. Their recent 1-0 Serie A loss to Inter Milan, despite creating 2.3 xG, highlights their struggle to convert chances, with strikers Artem Dovbyk and Evan Ferguson yet to find their groove in Europe.

However, Roma’s home form offers hope. They’ve won eight of their last 11 competitive matches at the Olimpico, with emphatic 4-1 and 5-0 victories over Plzen in past European meetings (2016/17 Europa League and 2018/19 Champions League). Gasperini’s 3-4-2-1 system, while not as high-octane as his Atalanta days, has kept Roma defensively solid, conceding no more than 1.4 xG per game. With Matias Soule (three goals, two assists in five games) pulling the strings and Paulo Dybala likely supporting Dovbyk up top, Roma’s attacking depth should exploit Plzen’s vulnerabilities. Injuries to Edoardo Bove (heart issue) and Angelino (bronchitis) are setbacks, but a strong bench, including Leon Bailey, provides rotation options.

Plzen’s Spirited Challenge

Viktoria Plzen have defied expectations in the Europa League, sitting one point above Roma with four points from two matches: a 1-1 draw at Ferencvaros and a commanding 3-0 win over Malmo. Their away form is respectable, unbeaten in five of their last six across all competitions (three wins, two draws). However, the Czech side faces a daunting task in Rome. Plzen have won just two of their last 20 away Europa League games, with their only victory in Italy in seven attempts coming against Napoli in 2013 (3-0).

Rafiu Durosinmi is Plzen’s dangerman, with four goals and two assists in five Europa League starts, including strikes in both matches this season. His pace and directness could trouble Roma’s backline, especially with support from Matej Vydra and Amar Memic. However, injuries to Jan Kopic and Jiri Panos, plus a suspension for Merchas Doski, weaken their squad. Plzen’s domestic struggles – fourth in the Czech First League, eight points behind Sparta Prague – suggest they may lack the consistency to upset a motivated Roma side.

Head-to-Head and Key Stats

Roma hold a slight edge in their five previous meetings with Plzen, winning two (both at home, 4-1 and 5-0), drawing two, and losing once (2-1 in Plzen, 2018/19 Champions League). Notably, three of the last four encounters produced over 2.5 goals, hinting at attacking potential. Roma’s home dominance is striking: they haven’t lost back-to-back European home games since 2014 and never in the Europa League. Plzen’s away woes in Europe (two wins in 20) and Roma’s 5.0 xG across their last three competitive games underline the hosts’ edge.

Key Battles and Tactical Insights

• Matias Soule vs Plzen’s Back Three: Soule’s creativity (top for chances created in Serie A) could unlock Plzen’s compact 3-4-3, especially if wing-back Amar Memic pushes too high.
• Durosinmi’s Pace vs Roma’s Defense: Evan Ndicka and Gianluca Mancini must stay alert to counter Plzen’s breakaways, where Durosinmi thrives.
• Midfield Control: Roma’s Lorenzo Pellegrini and Niccolò Pisilli will look to dominate possession against Plzen’s Lukas Cerv and Cheick Souare, who lack the same technical quality.

The Stadio Olimpico’s electric atmosphere (capacity 70,634, expected sell-out) could tilt the scales further in Roma’s favor.

Prediction: Roma to Win

Roma’s superior squad depth, home advantage, and historical dominance over Plzen make them clear favorites. Despite their finishing woes, Gasperini’s men should capitalize on Plzen’s depleted squad and poor away record in Europe. We predict a Roma win (odds around 1.36 at Betfred), likely by a 2-0 or 2-1 scoreline. For added value, consider “Roma to Win & Both Teams to Score – Yes” (around 3.00), given Plzen’s scoring streak and Roma’s occasional defensive lapses. Durosinmi’s threat keeps things interesting, but Roma’s quality should shine through.

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