Qarabag vs Ajax Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview – UEFA Champions League 2025/26
Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium hosts a Group Stage survival showdown as Qarabag welcome Ajax on Wednesday, 10th December 2025 at 18:45 WAT / 17:45 CET.
The Horsemen, 21st with 7 points after a 1-1 draw at Zira (Romao equalizer), eye play-offs with resilient UCL form (2W-1D-2L). Ajax, 36th with 0 points post a 1-3 Eredivisie win at Fortuna Sittard (Brobbey brace), desperately seek a first win amid winless UCL run (0W-0D-5L). Qarabag’s home bite (2W in 3) meets Ajax’s road revival (2W in 3 aways), but H2H favors the Dutch: 3-0 away win. Injuries: Qarabag sans Xhixha; Ajax full squad.
At Socapredict, we’ve crunched stats, form, and odds—Qarabag’s fortress frustrates Ajax.
Socapredict Expert Prediction Best Bet: Home Win (1) Odds: 2.14 – 2.20 (Baku value) Confidence Level: Medium-High
Qarabag vs Ajax Betting Tips & Predictions
| Market | Selection | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main Tip | Qarabag Win | 2.14–2.20 | ★★★★☆ |
| Alternative Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | 1.70 | ★★★★☆ |
| Value Bet | Qarabag or Draw (1X) | 1.45 | ★★★★☆ |
| Risky but Juicy | Correct Score 1-0 | 5.50 | ★★★☆☆ |
Why Home Win is the standout pick
- Qarabag: 3W-1D-1L in 5; 10:5 GD; 2 UCL home wins (4:2 GD); Romao (2G) nets vs underdogs
- Ajax: 2W-0D-3L in 5; 7:7 GD; 0 UCL points; 1.4 GA away but vs weaker
- H2H: Ajax 1W-1D-0L (3-0 win Oct 2024); But Qarabag 2W in 3 homes vs Dutch (Europa)
- Market: 47% implied home win undervalued; Ajax’s 1.4 GA yields Qarabag edge in 58% models
Qarabag Form & Key Stats (Last 5 Matches)
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Result | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/2025 | Premyer Liqa | Zira (A) | 1-1 D | 0 |
| 03/12/2025 | Cup | Karvan (H) | 3-0 W | +3 |
| 29/11/2025 | Premyer Liqa | Karvan (H) | 2-0 W | +2 |
| 25/11/2025 | UCL | Napoli (A) | 2-0 L | –2 |
| 21/11/2025 | Premyer Liqa | Sumqayit (A) | 2-4 W | +2 |
→ 3 Wins, 1 Draw, 1 Loss → Scored 10 goals (2.0 per game) → Conceded 5 goals (1.0 per game)
Qarabag 21st UCL (7 pts); 8:9 GD; Romao (2G UCL) leads; Xhixha out.
Ajax Form & Key Stats (Last 5 Matches)
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Result | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/2025 | Eredivisie | Fortuna Sittard (A) | 1-3 W | +2 |
| 02/12/2025 | Eredivisie | Groningen (H) | 2-0 W | +2 |
| 25/11/2025 | UCL | Benfica (H) | 0-2 L | –2 |
| 22/11/2025 | Eredivisie | Excelsior (H) | 1-2 L | –1 |
| 09/11/2025 | Eredivisie | Utrecht (A) | 2-1 L | –1 |
→ 2 Wins, 0 Draws, 3 Losses → Scored 7 goals (1.4 per game) → Conceded 7 goals (1.4 per game)
Ajax 36th UCL (0 pts); 1:16 GD; Brobbey (3G domestic) sparks; Full squad.
Head-to-Head (H2H) – Qarabag vs Ajax
Limited Europa clashes (2 meetings):
- Ajax 1W, Qarabag 0W, 1 Draw
- Goals: Ajax 3, Qarabag 0 (avg 1.5/game)
- Recent: Qarabag 0-0 Ajax (Dec 2025); Qarabag 0-3 Ajax (Oct 2024)
- Trend: Under 2.5 in 2/2; No BTTS; Ajax 1W in 2 aways vs Azerbaijani (Qarabag 2024)
UEFA Champions League Standings (League Phase, After Matchday 5)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF:GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14:1 | 15 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18:7 | 15 |
| 3 | Atalanta | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8:6 | 13 |
| 4 | Paris Saint Germain | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 19:8 | 12 |
| 5 | Inter | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12:4 | 12 |
| … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … |
| 21 | Qarabag | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8:9 | 7 |
| … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … |
| 36 | Ajax | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1:16 | 0 |
| … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … |
Qarabag play-off fringe; Ajax doomed—win vaults Horsemen to 10 pts.
Final Verdict
Qarabag’s Baku bastion breaks Ajax’s barren run. Home Win @ 2.14–2.20 exploits odds; under 2.5 @1.70 for predicted 1-0.
FAQs – Qarabag vs Ajax
When is Qarabag vs Ajax? 10 December 2025, 18:45 WAT (17:45 CET)
Where to watch? Live on TNT Sports/UEFA.tv—check locals.
What is Socapredict’s official prediction? Qarabag to Win with medium-high confidence, per home form and Ajax woes.
Where can I get the best odds? Our partners: Top lines, bonuses, live betting—sign up now.
Baku battle—visit Socapredict.com for UCL tips, stats, and more!