Manchester City vs Liverpool Prediction: Premier League Showdown Preview, Stats & H2H – November 9, 2025
Few fixtures in world football ignite as much passion as Manchester City vs Liverpool, and the November 9, 2025, Premier League Round 11 installment at the Etihad Stadium is set to deliver fireworks. With City in 3rd on 19 points and Liverpool 6th with 18, this clash could define the early title race. Under cool 54°F conditions, our exhaustive Manchester City vs Liverpool prediction unpacks the form, storied H2H, team news, and why the hosts edge a 3-1 victory in this Northwest derby—just 32 miles apart.
Match Preview: Title Contenders Collide
Manchester City have been relentless at home, winning all six of their Etihad league games this season and netting 2+ goals in 100% of their last three. Overall, they’ve claimed five wins from six recent outings (83% rate), scoring 20 while conceding only eight. Liverpool, winless in draws this term, have six victories from 10 but faltered away, losing four of six road trips (67% loss rate). Yet, they’ve notched nine wins in 15 overall and seen over 2.5 goals in 83% of their last six league matches—promising chaos.
This isn’t just points; it’s pride. City’s average home dominance meets Liverpool’s counter-threat, with H2H averaging 3.20 goals. Premier League betting tips favor City at 47% win probability and -111 odds, but the +290 draw offers intrigue in a fixture known for stalemates.
Key Stats Snapshot:
- Manchester City Home Form: 6 wins (100% win rate)
- Liverpool Away Form: 2 wins, 4 losses (33% win rate)
- Overall League Position: City (3rd, +12 GD), Liverpool (6th, +4 GD)
Head-to-Head: A Modern Classic of Draws and Drama
The rivalry’s recent history is a testament to parity, with the last six Premier League meetings seeing City lose three—highlighting Liverpool’s Anfield edge but City’s growing menace. Over 15 encounters (mostly EPL), it’s balanced: City 33% wins, draws 33%, Liverpool 33%. Draws dominate, but City’s home record tips the scales.
| Date | Competition | Result | Score (HT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/01/2015 | EPL | Man City 2-1 Liverpool | (1-1) |
| 08/25/2014 | EPL | Liverpool 3-1 Man City | (1-0) |
| 04/13/2014 | EPL | Liverpool 3-2 Man City | (2-0) |
| 12/26/2013 | EPL | Man City 2-1 Liverpool | (2-1) |
| 02/03/2013 | EPL | Liverpool 2-2 Man City | (1-1) |
| 08/26/2012 | EPL | Man City 2-2 Liverpool | (1-0) |
| 01/25/2012 | EFL | Man City 2-2 Liverpool | (-) |
| 01/11/2012 | EFL | Liverpool 0-1 Man City | (-) |
| 01/03/2012 | EPL | Man City 3-0 Liverpool | (2-0) |
| 11/27/2011 | EPL | Liverpool 1-1 Man City | (1-1) |
| 04/11/2011 | EPL | Man City 3-0 Liverpool | (3-0) |
| 08/21/2010 | EPL | Liverpool 3-0 Man City | (1-0) |
| 02/20/2010 | EPL | Man City 0-0 Liverpool | (0-0) |
| 11/21/2009 | EPL | Liverpool 2-2 Man City | (0-0) |
| 02/22/2009 | EPL | Man City 1-1 Liverpool | (0-0) |
H2H Breakdown: Man City 33% | Draw 33% | Liverpool 33%. Expect goals—over 2.5 in 60% of recent ties.
Team News: Minimal Disruptions
Both squads enter near full strength, but Liverpool’s midfield depth is tested.
Manchester City Injuries/Suspensions: None reported as of November 9, 2025.
Liverpool Injuries/Suspensions:
- S. Bajcetic Maquieira (Midfielder): Hamstring Injury – Uncertain return
No reds or bans, but City’s squad rotation could exploit Liverpool’s lone absence. Live odds: City -111, Draw +290, Liverpool +270.
Premier League Standings: Tight Top-Six Battle
The table is a thriller after 10-11 games, with just one point separating 3rd from 6th. City and Liverpool are locked in the Champions League hunt.
| Position | Team | PTS | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 26 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 5 | +15 |
| 2 | Chelsea | 20 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 11 | +10 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 19 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 8 | +12 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 19 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 10 | +4 |
| 5 | Tottenham | 18 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 10 | +9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 18 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 14 | +3 |
| 8 | Manchester United | 18 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | +1 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace | 16 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +5 |
| 10 | Brighton | 15 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 15 | +2 |
| 11 | Everton | 15 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 15 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 |
| 13 | Brentford | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 |
| 14 | Newcastle United | 12 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 |
| 15 | Fulham | 11 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 |
| 16 | Leeds United | 11 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -8 |
| 17 | Burnley | 10 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 22 | -8 |
| 18 | West Ham | 10 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 23 | -10 |
| 19 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 19 | -12 |
| 20 | Wolverhampton | 2 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 25 | -18 |
Qualification: Top 4 for Champions League, 5-7 for Europa League, bottom 3 for Relegation.
Advanced Stats: City’s Edge in Possession, Liverpool’s Press
From 16 games each, City dominate set-pieces and saves, while Liverpool edge in throws and offsides—hinting at high pressing.
| Category | Man City (Avg/Total) | Liverpool (Avg/Total) |
|---|---|---|
| Clean Sheets | 0.44 / 7 | 0.25 / 4 |
| Corners | 5.44 / 87 | 5.25 / 84 |
| Goal Kicks | 5.31 / 85 | 6.56 / 105 |
| Throws In | 17.69 / 283 | 20.75 / 332 |
| Offsides | 1 / 16 | 1.81 / 29 |
| Penalties | 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 |
| GK Saves | 2 / 32 | 2.38 / 38 |
| Red Cards | 0 / 0 | 0.13 / 2 |
| Yellow Cards | 1.63 / 26 | 1.75 / 28 |
| Fouls | 9.19 / 147 | 9.81 / 157 |
| Tackles | 13.94 / 223 | 12.81 / 205 |
City’s zero reds underscore discipline; Liverpool’s fouls suggest vulnerability to counters.
Fixture Difficulty: Tough Sledding Ahead
Both face grueling schedules (rated 1-5, 1=easy):
Manchester City: Nov 9 (4) vs Liverpool, Nov 22 (3) EPL, Nov 25 (2) UCL, etc., up to May 24 (3) EPL. Liverpool: Nov 9 (4) at City, Nov 22 (1) EPL, Nov 26 (3) UCL, etc., up to May 24 (3) EPL.
This match rates ‘severe’ for both—win it, and momentum surges.
Our Manchester City vs Liverpool Prediction
Home fortress meets resilient Reds, but City’s form (83% wins) and H2H home tweaks point to victory. Our model forecasts a 3-1 Manchester City win (47% probability), with over 2.5 goals at 70% likelihood. For EPL Round 11 betting tips, consider:
- Man City to Win @ -111 – Solid favorite
- Both Teams to Score: Yes – 65% chance
- Correct Score: 3-1 – High-reward edge
Kickoff at 4:30 PM GMT—will Pep’s machine grind down Arne Slot’s side? Share your Manchester City vs Liverpool prediction below!
Article updated live for November 9, 2025. For more Premier League previews and soccer predictions, visit SoCaPredict.com.