Ajax vs Benfica Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview – UEFA Champions League 2025/26
The Johan Cruyff Arena hosts a desperate survival clash as Ajax face Benfica in UEFA Champions League league-phase action on Tuesday, 25th November 2025 at 18:45 WAT / 17:45 GMT.
Rock-bottom Ajax (36th, 0 pts, 1:14 GD) meet near-bottom Benfica (35th, 0 pts, 2:8 GD) in a battle of the winless. The Dutch giants have leaked 14 goals—the competition’s worst defense—while Benfica’s European drought (6 straight UCL losses) persists under José Mourinho. Ajax’s home woes (3 straight losses) meet Benfica’s road resilience (unbeaten in 9/10 vs Dutch sides), but both crave that first point.
At Socapredict, we’ve dissected stats, form, and H2H for the edge. Expect goals amid the chaos—Ajax’s leaks fuel the fire.
Socapredict Expert Prediction Best Bet: Over 1.5 Goals Odds: 1.30 – 1.35 (low-risk staple) Confidence Level: High
Ajax vs Benfica Betting Tips & Predictions
| Market | Selection | Odds | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main Tip | Over 1.5 Goals | 1.30–1.35 | ★★★★★ |
| Alternative Bet | Both Teams to Score – Yes | 1.75 | ★★★★☆ |
| Value Bet | Benfica Draw No Bet | 1.55 | ★★★★☆ |
| Risky but Juicy | Correct Score 1-2 | 7.50 | ★★★☆☆ |
Why Over 1.5 Goals is the standout pick
- Ajax’s UCL defense: 14 conceded in 4 (worst ever); trailed for 68% of match time
- Benfica’s away trend: Conceded in 10/12 UCL roads; but scored in 4/5 recent games
- H2H: 3/4 meetings over 1.5; recent 4 games averaged 2.5 goals
- Form clash: Ajax scored in 3/5, Benfica netted 10 in 5; 80% of combined games hit 2+ goals
Ajax Form & Key Stats (Last 5 Matches)
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Result | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | Eredivisie | Excelsior (H) | 1-2 L | –1 |
| 09/11/2025 | Eredivisie | Utrecht (A) | 2-1 L | –1 |
| 05/11/2025 | Champions League | Galatasaray (H) | 0-3 L | –3 |
| 01/11/2025 | Eredivisie | Heerenveen (H) | 1-1 D | 0 |
| 26/10/2025 | Eredivisie | Twente (A) | 2-3 W | +1 |
→ 1 Win, 1 Draw, 3 Losses → Scored 6 goals (1.2 per game) → Conceded 10 goals (2.0 per game)
Ajax’s crisis deepens: 7 straight European losses; just 1 UCL goal (Weghorst); Berghuis & van den Boomen out injured.
Benfica Form & Key Stats (Last 5 Matches)
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Result | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | Taça de Portugal | Atlético CP (A) | 0-2 W | +2 |
| 09/11/2025 | Primeira Liga | Casa Pia (H) | 2-2 D | 0 |
| 05/11/2025 | Champions League | Bayer Leverkusen (H) | 0-1 L | –1 |
| 01/11/2025 | Primeira Liga | Guimaraes (A) | 0-3 W | +3 |
| 29/10/2025 | Taça da Liga | Tondela (H) | 3-0 W | +3 |
→ 3 Wins, 1 Draw, 1 Loss → Scored 10 goals (2.0 per game) → Conceded 3 goals (0.6 per game)
Benfica steady domestically (3rd in Primeira Liga, 25 pts); Pavlidis (9G) leads attack; Mourinho’s tweaks key after UCL blanks.
Head-to-Head (H2H) – Ajax vs Benfica
Evenly poised in Europe (4 meetings):
- Ajax 1W, Benfica 1W, 2 Draws
- Goals: Ajax 3, Benfica 3 (avg. 1.5/game)
- Key results: Benfica 2-2 Ajax (2022); Ajax 0-1 Benfica (2022)
- Trend: 75% Over 1.5; No recent blowouts, but Ajax’s defense tips scales
UEFA Champions League Standings (After Matchday 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF:GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14:3 | 12 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11:0 | 12 |
| 3 | Inter | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11:1 | 12 |
| 4 | Manchester City | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10:3 | 10 |
| 5 | Paris Saint-Germain | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 6 | Newcastle | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10:2 | 9 |
| … | … | … | … | … | … | … | … |
| 35 | Benfica | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:8 | 0 |
| 36 | Ajax | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1:14 | 0 |
Win vaults to playoffs; loss seals early exit.
Final Verdict
Ajax’s porous backline meets Benfica’s road savvy—goals inevitable. Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.30–1.35 is the anchor bet; add BTTS Yes for juice in a likely 1-2 Benfica edge.
FAQs – Ajax vs Benfica
When is Ajax vs Benfica? 25 November 2025, 18:45 WAT (17:45 GMT)
Where to watch? Live on UEFA networks and streams—check local guides.
What is Socapredict’s official prediction? Over 1.5 Goals with high confidence, per defensive frailties and H2H.
Where can I get the best odds? Our partners lock in top rates, bonuses, and live markets—join now.
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