Lille vs PAOK Prediction: Goals Galore Expected at Stade Pierre-Mauroy

By SocaPredict Team | October 23, 2025

The UEFA Europa League League Phase delivers a compelling clash as Lille OSC host PAOK Thessaloniki at the Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Matchday 3. With Lille in scintillating European form and PAOK desperate to ignite their campaign, this matchup promises action. Our expert prediction? Over 1.5 goals – here’s why this encounter could deliver a lively scoreline.

Lille’s European Surge

Lille have stormed out of the gates in the 2025-26 Europa League, securing maximum points from their opening two matches. A 2-1 home win over SK Brann and a historic 1-0 away victory against Roma – sealed by goalkeeper Berke Ozer’s remarkable triple penalty save – have placed Les Dogues among the competition’s elite, sitting in the top six of the League Phase. Domestically, Bruno Genesio’s side are sixth in Ligue 1 with 14 points from eight games, coming off a 2-0 win at Nantes, where Hakon Arnar Haraldsson and Hamza Igamane found the net.

Lille’s attacking output is impressive, averaging 1.8 goals per game across their last 10 matches in all competitions, with 4.4 shots on target and 59.1% possession. Olivier Giroud (three goals this season) and Haraldsson (four goals) lead the line, supported by Félix Correia’s four assists. However, injuries to Alexsandro, Ousmane Toure, and doubts over Nabil Bentaleb and Ngal’ayel Mukau could test their depth. Lille’s home record in European group stages is formidable – unbeaten in their last 14 (W9, D5), scoring first in both Europa League games this season. French sides have also dominated Greek opposition, winning all nine recent Europa League encounters, netting at least two goals each time.

PAOK’s Uphill Battle

PAOK Thessaloniki, despite topping the Greek Super League after a 2-0 win over AEK Athens, have struggled in Europe. A 0-0 draw with Maccabi Tel Aviv and a 3-1 loss at Celta Vigo leave them with one point, languishing in 30th in the League Phase. Their away form in European competitions is dire – just one win in their last eight (2-0 vs Rigas FS in 2024), with seven defeats. Across their last 10 matches, PAOK average 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with 5.1 shots on target and 57.9% possession.

Georgios Giakoumakis, on loan from Cruz Azul, is their talisman, scoring in their loss to Celta Vigo, while Andrija Zivkovic and Giannis Konstantelias (two goals each) provide flair. However, injuries to Jiri Pavlenka (adductor) and Dimitris Chatsidis, plus Mama Balde’s absence, weaken their squad. Razvan Lucescu’s attacking philosophy has left PAOK exposed defensively in Europe, conceding three goals in their last away outing.

Head-to-Head and Key Stats

This is only the second competitive meeting between Lille and PAOK, following a 1-1 draw in Thessaloniki earlier this season. French sides’ dominance over Greek teams (nine straight Europa League wins, 20 goals scored) bodes well for Lille. Lille’s games have seen over 1.5 goals in seven of their last 10 across all competitions, while PAOK’s Europa League matches this season have both exceeded 1.5 goals (0-0 and 3-1). Notably, under 2.5 goals occurred in four of Lille’s last five matches and two of PAOK’s last five, but the attacking quality on both sides suggests a breakthrough.

Key Battles and Tactical Insights

• Giroud vs PAOK’s Backline: Giroud’s aerial prowess and finishing could exploit PAOK’s defensive frailties, especially with Dejan Lovren tasked with containing him.
• Zivkovic’s Creativity vs Lille’s Defense: PAOK’s wing play, led by Zivkovic’s three assists, will test Lille’s full-backs, Thomas Meunier and Romain Perraud.
• Midfield Tempo: Lille’s Benjamin Andre and Ayyoub Bouaddi must disrupt PAOK’s Mady Camara and Magomed Ozdoev to control the game’s rhythm.

The Stade Pierre-Mauroy’s electric atmosphere (capacity 50,186, expected near sell-out) should fuel Lille’s intensity.

Prediction: Over 1.5 Goals

Lille’s clinical attack, home dominance, and PAOK’s attacking intent despite defensive issues make over 1.5 goals a strong bet (odds around 1.30 at Bet365). Lille’s perfect European record and PAOK’s goal-scoring in three of their last five games suggest at least two goals in this clash. A likely 2-1 Lille win aligns with predictions favoring the hosts (-1 handicap at -104) and both teams to score (1.85 at Paripesa). PAOK’s away struggles and Lille’s 14-game unbeaten home run in European group stages tilt the outright result, but the goals market is the safest play.

Catch the action live on Canal+ (France), Disney+ Premium (select regions), or UEFA.tv at 19:00 UTC. Follow SocaPredict.com for more Europa League betting tips, and bet responsibly – 18+ only.