Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips – La Liga
Atlético Madrid will host Real Madrid in the Madrid Derby on Sunday, 28 September 2025 (Date assumed as per fixture schedule). This match is one of the biggest in Spanish football: fierce rivalry, strong historical context, and potentially decisive implications for the La Liga table. Expect intensity, tight margins, and likely goals from both sides.
🏟 Match Details
- Fixture: Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid
- League: La Liga
- Date: ~28 September 2025
- Venue: Estadio Metropolitano, Madrid
- Kick-off: To be confirmed
📊 Head-to-Head & Trends
- Real Madrid have historically dominated in terms of wins: in ~240 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have won ~117, Atlético ~60, with many draws in between.
- Against Atlético, Real Madrid have more goals per match on average.
- Recent matches between the two often end in draws; many La Liga derbies have finished 1-1.
- Over 1.5 goals has occurred in ~80% of past games between them; Over 2.5 goals is almost 50-50.
📈 Recent Form & Team Insights
Atlético Madrid:
- Mixed start this season; inconsistent results make them dangerous at home, especially using counter-attacks.
- Have some defensive absences hurting squad depth. Real Madrid’s attack may exploit those.
Real Madrid:
- Strong offensive form; scoring ability through players like Mbappé, Vinícius Jr., etc.
- Vulnerable sometimes in defence, especially in derbies where Atlético press and physicality come into play.
✅ Prediction & Betting Tips
- Full-Time Result: Real Madrid to win (but expect a close game)
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes — likely both sides find the net
- Goals Market: Over 2.5 goals seems plausible given attacking strength and derby tension
- Value Bet: Real Madrid win + BTTS
- Alternate Scoreline: 2-1 Real Madrid or 2-2 draw (for a riskier/outlier pick)
🏆 Verdict
Atlético will put up a strong fight at the Metropolitano, using home crowd and defensive setup. But Real Madrid’s attacking depth and momentum give them a slight edge. The expectation is a tightly contested match, but Real Madrid likely take the win. Best bets: Real win, Both Teams to Score, Over 2.5 goals.