Athletic Bilbao vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Stats, H2H – August 25, 2025
Match Overview
Date: August 25, 2025
Venue: San Mamés Barria, Bilbao, Spain
Weather: 64°F, partly cloudy
Competition: La Liga, Round 2
Athletic Bilbao, currently 9th in La Liga, will host 6th-placed Rayo Vallecano in a highly anticipated matchup at San Mamés Barria. Despite Athletic Bilbao’s strong historical record against Rayo, the prediction model favors a 2-3 victory for Rayo Vallecano with an average of 2.54 goals expected. With Rayo Vallecano holding a 36% win probability, this promises to be a closely contested battle.
Head-to-Head Record
Athletic Bilbao have dominated recent encounters, winning 5 of their last 6 matches against Rayo Vallecano. Here’s a snapshot of their head-to-head history:
- 02/22/2015: Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 09/24/2014: Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Athletic Bilbao (La Liga)
- 05/02/2014: Rayo Vallecano 0-3 Athletic Bilbao (La Liga)
- 12/22/2013: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 06/01/2013: Rayo Vallecano 2-2 Athletic Bilbao (La Liga)
- 01/11/2013: Athletic Bilbao 1-2 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
Key Insight: Athletic Bilbao have an impressive 83% win rate in their last 6 matches against Rayo Vallecano, with no losses. However, Rayo’s recent form suggests they could pull off an upset.
Team Form and Stats
Athletic Bilbao
- Position: 9th (3 points from 1 game, 1-0-0, 3 GF, 2 GA)
- Recent Form: Athletic Bilbao have won 4 of their last 6 matches, showcasing strong momentum.
- Key Stats:
- Clean sheets: 3 in 6 games (0.5 per game)
- Corners: 31 (5.17 per game)
- Yellow cards: 7 (1.17 per game)
- Injuries/Suspensions:
- I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria (Midfielder, Unknown injury, Out indefinitely)
- U. Eguíluz Arroyo (Defender, Cruciate Ligament Tear, Out until 03/01/2026)
- Y. Álvarez López (Defender, Doping Ban, Out indefinitely)
Rayo Vallecano
- Position: 6th (3 points from 1 game, 1-0-0, 3 GF, 1 GA)
- Recent Form: Rayo Vallecano have an impressive 67% win rate in La Liga, remaining unbeaten in their last 4 away games.
- Key Stats:
- Clean sheets: 3 in 6 games (0.5 per game)
- Corners: 45 (7.5 per game)
- Yellow cards: 10 (1.67 per game)
- Injuries/Suspensions:
- Ó. Martín Luengo (Midfielder, Suspended, Out until 05/25/2025)
- S. Camello Pérez (Attacker, Unknown, Out until 05/25/2025)
- J. Montiel Caballero (Midfielder, Thigh Injury, Out until 05/25/2025)
- A. Mumin (Defender, Knee Injury, Out until 05/25/2025)
Prediction and Betting Tips
The model predicts a 2-3 win for Rayo Vallecano, with an expected average of 2.54 goals. Despite Athletic Bilbao’s historical dominance, Rayo’s strong away form and attacking intent could tip the scales. Here are our top betting tips:
- Over 2.5 Goals: With 2.54 goals predicted, this bet is a solid choice for value.
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Both sides have shown offensive capability, making this a likely outcome.
- Rayo Vallecano to Win: With a 36% win probability, Rayo Vallecano are tipped to edge out a narrow victory.
Betting Odds (indicative):
- Athletic Bilbao Win: +475
- Draw: +250
- Rayo Vallecano Win: -149
Match Insights
- Athletic Bilbao’s Home Strength: Athletic Bilbao have won 2 of their last 3 home games, but their injury-hit defense could struggle against Rayo’s attack.
- Rayo Vallecano’s Away Form: Rayo have been flawless on the road, winning 4 of their last 4 away matches, which boosts their confidence heading into this fixture.
- Key Players to Watch:
- Athletic Bilbao: Their midfield will need to control the tempo to counter Rayo’s high-pressing style.
- Rayo Vallecano: Their forwards will look to capitalize on Athletic Bilbao’s depleted backline.
Upcoming Fixtures
Athletic Bilbao
- 08/31/2025: vs. Atlético Madrid (Severe, Difficulty 4)
- 09/14/2025: vs. Real Oviedo (Easy, Difficulty 1)
- 09/21/2025: vs. Celta Vigo (Moderate, Difficulty 3)
Rayo Vallecano
- 08/28/2025: vs. Dinamo (Europa Conference League, Moderate, Difficulty 2)
- 08/31/2025: vs. Villarreal (Severe, Difficulty 5)
- 09/14/2025: vs. Osasuna (Severe, Difficulty 4)
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